These Top Restaurants Around The World Are Worth The Trip

 Take a culinary pilgrimage to these avant-garde restaurants across the globe to experience unforgettable food elevated to an art form.

STAY by Yannick Alléno - Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Dubai is officially one of the newest and hottest destinations on the culinary scene. In 2022, Michelin published their Dubai guide – the first-ever edition in the United Arab Emirates – and awarded their elusive stars to 11 restaurants.

STAY by Yannick Alléno, which is housed in an colonial-style property at The Palm, was one of only two restaurants to receive a pair of coveted stars.

High timber walls, vaulted ceilings with black crystal chandeliers, and tropical gardens create an opulent, romantic atmosphere, and multiple tasting menu options showcase elevated French cuisine. But the pièce de résistance is the majestic “pastry library,” which spans an entire wall.

Geranium - Copenhagen, Denmark

How’s this for a restaurant recommendation? In 2022, 50 Best crowned Geranium as The World’s Best Restaurant. Led by chef Rasmus Kofoed, the three-star Michelin rated restaurant is a serene, light-filled space with panoramic views of Fælledparken gardens.

Each season, there’s a different ‘Universe’ tasting menu, which entails about 20 sweet and savory contemporary Danish courses over 3+ hours. In spring, that might mean a dramatic black-and-white plate of celeriac with rygeost and fermented cream, or salted herring in crispy algae with dill and aquavit. 

Central - Lima, Peru

Rated by 50 Best as The Best Restaurant in South America, as well as the second best on the globe, this innovative restaurant in Lima from husband-and-wife team Virgilio Martínez and Pía León’s showcases the staggering biodiversity of their native Peru.

Each dish on the 17-ish course tasting menu is its own unique ecosystem. These miniature, edible worlds are not just comprised of ingredients from the country’s highest peaks, rainforests, river, and sea, but the inventive plating represents it as well. So don’t be alarmed if wafers of crispy fish skin are served on a vessel made of frozen piranha heads, with your crunchy snacks held it the fish’s pointy teeth.

It’s all done thoughtfully with the goal of celebrating and preserving Peru’s staggering array of culinary resources, which boasts an estimated 4,000 varieties of rainbow-colored potatoes alone. The chefs work directly with growers all over the vast and wildly divergent country, and their research arm – run with Martínez's sister, Malena – is dedicated to sustainability.

Le Bernardin - New York, NY

It’s been decades since Le Bernardin was the new kid on the culinary block. Now an institution best known for its exquisite fish and seafood, it opened in 1986. A few years later, a 28 year-old Eric Ripert took the reins of the kitchen, and both he and the restaurant have been racking up the culinary world’s biggest awards ever since – including the longest-running four-star rating from the New York Times, three Michelin stars, and countless awards from the James Beard Foundation.

The dining room is a calm retreat from the traffic and noise of Midtown Manhattan. Seasonal tasting menus include creative vegetable dishes and decadent handmade pastas. But the real reasons you’re here are the “almost raw,” “barely touched,” or “lightly cooked” oysters, scallops, octopus, crab, langoustines, uni, and halibut, which Ripert presents as the treasures of the sea that they are.

Pujol - Mexico City, Mexico

New Yorkers likely know Enrique Olvera as the superstar chef behind Cosme and Atla restaurants. But their precursor was Pujol, which Olvera opened back in 2000 to show the world how refined Mexican cuisine can be.

After two decades where countless fine dining restaurants and trends have come and gone, Pujol still offers an eye-opening and memorable experience that alone is worth the flight to Mexico City. Diners can opt for the tasting menu or omakase. Jesús Durón has now taken the reins as Pujol’s chef de cuisine, but don’t worry: no matter which option you take, chances are the signature dish, “mole madre, mole nuevo” (two concentric rings of the laborious Mexican sauce, one of which is aged for at least 1,500 days) will still be on the menu.

Mugaritz - San Sebastian, Spain

San Sebastian is Mecca for foodie travelers: from casual pintxos bars to fine-dining institutions, the dreamy Basque country touts more Michelin stars per square mile than almost any other city on the planet.

Mugaritz, which is located in an old country house about a 15-minute drive from the city center, falls into the later category: it’s steadily maintained its two 2 Michelin stars since 2006.

Expect 20-some playful and avant garde courses that change with the seasons…but then lose any other expectations you might have. Chef Andoni Luis Adurizserve aims to open minds and expand palates with thought-provoking dishes like a face-shaped serving vessel draped with a visor made of caramelized black apple (diguising caviar and pine nut “eyes”), which the chef designed to encourage diners to look inward. 

The Willows Inn on Lummi Island - Lummi Island, WA

Hop a 5-minute car ferry from mainland Washington to dine at this destination-worthy restaurant located north of Seattle. It’s helmed by Blaine Wetzel, who cooked under world-renowned chef René Redzepi at Noma before taking over as chef and putting the century-old inn on the global culinary map.

Before dinner, sit on the Inn’s porch to take in views of the water and setting sun with a creative cocktail in hand. Depending on the weather, you can opt to dine outside, or move indoors to the relaxed dining room. This is fine dining, no doubt. But nothing here is stuffy: you’ll see Chef Wetzel dropping food off at tables so he can chat with guests. Ingredients are fished, foraged, and farmed daily, and each plate of Pacific Northwest goodness (think grilled oysters with tequila sauce, romano beans in mole, prawn empanadas, house-smoked salmon, and dungeness crab gaznate) arrives at the table beautifully composed.

Order wine pairings, or opt for the Inn’s stellar non-alcoholic cocktails and interesting juices like quince, red currant, snap pea, and black currant.

Elizabeth Brownfield

10 Biggest Weight Loss Myths A Personal Trainer Wants You To Stop Believing

 More than two-thirds of U.S adults are either obese or overweight. While approximately 12.7 million American kids (aged 2 to 19) have obesity.

Unsurprisingly, weight loss is one of the most popular fitness goals among Americans with more than half of U.S adults (51%) reportedly wanting to lose weight by making healthier lifestyle changes.

In another survey, conducted by Cleveland Clinic, a staggering 84% reported they have tried at least one weight-loss method in the past. About one-third of the respondents admitted they typically stick with their weight loss plan between one week and one month.

Setting unrealistic goals, unhealthy misconceptions and lack of proper resources, supervision and support are some of the biggest barriers that can derail your weight loss journey.

“If you're looking for a quick fix to lose a lot of weight, you’re not going to find it. In order to lose weight safely and sustainably, you need to start by changing your everyday habits and not all at once," says Michael Garrico, a personal fitness trainer at Total Shape.

Instead of trying to change your whole life in a day, start by adopting small habits that work well with your lifestyle. "Maybe decide you will go to the gym three times a week. Or try limiting your consumption of processed foods," suggests Garrico. 

Also, ask yourself why you want to lose weight in the first place. "Having a clearly defined reason will help you stick to your journey when you're feeling less motivated—which is a normal part of the process," Garrico explains.

"It’s a trial and error process of seeing what type of diet and exercise routine works for you," notes Garrico. "It might take a while, but the results will be worth it," he assures.

In hopes of making your weight loss journey easier Garrico reveals the truth behind the most common myths about weight loss that could be holding you back from your goals:

Myth#1 Avoid Carbs If You Want To Lose Weight

Fact: Carbohydrates, proteins, and fats are the essential macronutrients that have to be a part of any healthy and sustainable diet. They each play a very important role in your body. Carbohydrates are a major source of energy for your body and they allow it to function properly.

Carbohydrates can be simple and complex, and what you want to do is limit your intake of simple carbohydrates. They are found in processed foods and because of their simple chemical structure, they spike your blood sugar levels.

Complex carbohydrates, on the other hand, are processed more slowly, which means that they provide sustained energy and there are no sudden spikes in your blood sugar levels. Peas, beans, lentils, whole grains, and some vegetables are all great sources of complex carbs.

Myth#2 If You Want To Lose Weight, You Need To Starve Yourself

Fact: Skipping meals and snacks is not the solution, for several reasons. For one, not eating when you are hungry leads to irritability, dissatisfaction, and inevitably to binging. Furthermore, when you are hungry, your body automatically slows down your metabolism, as a way to ensure survival through an extended period of starvation.

Rather than ignoring your hunger, you should eat mini-meals and nutritious snacks every 3 to 4 hours throughout the day. Try including high-quality protein and different kinds of vegetables in every meal.

Myth#3 Exercise Is The Key To Losing Weight

Fact: Putting all your efforts into exercise is a waste of time and will lead to no results in the long run. However important physical activity may be, not only for losing weight, but for general wellbeing as well, nutrition is the key factor. Workouts account for only a small percentage of calorie burning, so what it comes down to is the quality of food you consume.

Myth#4 Diet Pills Or Surgery Help To Lose Weight Quickly

Fact: Both diet pills and weight-loss surgery are extremely risky and often don’t give the desired results. Diet medications are ineffective and can cause serious harm to your body; high blood pressure, fast heart rate, and other heart and lung problems are common side effects.

Weight-loss surgery can be effective for highly obese individuals, but it takes serious preparation and not everyone is a suitable candidate. Furthermore, it is a surgical procedure, which means it carries substantial risks such as blood clots and infections. Unfortunately, the majority of those who undergo weight-loss surgery regain their weight.

Myth#5 Consuming Fat Makes You Gain Weight

Fact: As previously mentioned, fat is an essential macronutrient that hat has a unique role in your body. It helps the proper functioning of your cells, keeps you warm, and supplies you with energy. It is also important for your brain and skin health.

Incorporating low-fat foods such as avocados, nuts, seeds, and olive oil into your diet will support your weight loss. These unsaturated fats make you feel fuller for longer, thus reducing your food cravings. It is important to mention that consuming excessive amounts of fats will lead to weight gain, as it leads to a high-calorie intake.

Myth#6 Only Those With Strong Willpower Can Lose Weight

Fact: Your weight loss journey is not a reflection of your character, and not achieving your goals is not proof of your lack of willpower, motivation, or work ethic. More and more research proves that factors such as genetics and environment also play a role in your weight gain or loss, meaning that while it is easy for some people to influence their weight, it can be very difficult for others.

Myth#7 Investing In A Fitness Tracker Is A Must

Fact: Although they may be an appealing accessory, studies indicate that they have no significant effect on the outcome of your weight-loss journey. In fact, a study from 2016 which monitored its participants who were trying to lose weight for 2 years showed that those who used fitness trackers dropped around 7.7 pounds, while those who didn’t drop an estimated 13 pounds.

Myth#8 Increase Your Protein Intake If You Want To Lose Weight

Fact: This one is not entirely false. As we have established, proteins are essential nutrients and they keep you full, help repair and build your tissues, and coordinate bodily functions. Although some studies suggest that higher protein intake can contribute to weight loss, it is debatable just how much protein your body actually needs.

Protein needs are different for everyone, as they depend on age, gender, degree of physical activity, and whether you are pregnant or nursing. Instead of obsessing with grams, focus on choosing nutrient-dense, lean sources of protein like lentils, tofu, eggs, and poultry.

Myth#9 Small Changes In Physical Activity Lead To Long-Term Weight Loss

Fact: We’ve all heard the famous “Use the stairs instead of the elevator.” Although choices like this are not bad, they will also not have any major impact on your weight loss. Taking the stairs will often get you faster to your destination instead of the elevator, and it is certainly beneficial to get that extra physical activity during your day, but this will not impact your long-term weight loss in any significant way.

Myth#10 It’s All Or Nothing

Fact: All the information about weight loss

can be overwhelming, especially if you are at the beginning of your weight-loss process. If excluding all processed foods from your diet and exercising every day are major changes to your routine, it is going to be very difficult to implement them, and this always leads to burnout, lethargy, loss of motivation, and a sense of failure.

"Your weight loss journey is a trial and error process of seeing what type of diet and exercise routine works for you," notes Garrico. "It might take a while, but the results will be worth it," he assures.

Noma Nazish

3 Reasons Content Marketing Is A Good Choice For Early-Stage Startups

 One of the biggest general problems you’ll face as an early-stage startup founder is trying to achieve too much with too few resources. The general principle of solving this problem is to focus your efforts as much as possible - forgo scope in order to achieve higher depth.

This is also true for your marketing efforts - there would be dozens of startup marketing strategies worth employing for your project, however, you simply wouldn’t have the capacity to implement all of them effectively. The key is to choose which one would be the most impactful for your project.

“Innovation is saying ‘no’ to 1,000 things. You have to pick carefully.” - Steve Jobs

Of course, this is easier said than done. To help you out, below we’ll list a few reasons why content marketing might be the thing worth choosing.

1. Could Be Done On A Budget

Content marketing could be very expensive if you do high-value video productions. It could also be extremely inexpensive if you decide to write content for your blog or social media profiles. In this case, the only direct cost would be your time.

This is great for an obvious reason - in the early startup stages, you don’t have access to a lot of capital. What you have is the time of the founders, and investing it in a well-thought-out content marketing strategy could pay dividends in the long run.

Conveniently, you can increase the resources you invest in content marketing as you grow. Initially, you can do it as lean as possible. Eventually, once your project enters its growth stage and you’ve established that it’s worth the investment, you can increase your content marketing budget significantly in order to increase your growth rate.

2. Could Be Used To Validate Your Ideas

Content is one of the quickest ways to validate ideas in the very early stages of your project. You can judge the intensity of a customer problem by writing about it and distributing your content where your target market is likely to hang out. The interest in your piece of content and the discussion your posts would generate could give you valuable insights into your market.

Moreover, your content could generate your first leads, which you can use for customer interviews and of course - for sales of your product or service.

3. Could Scale Exponentially

Last but certainly not least, the most important trait of content marketing is that it has very high growth potential.

First, it can grow steadily if you are providing value to the people consuming your content because they are likely to recommend it to their peers. Alternatively, the algorithms of the platform on which you are publishing could also help you to grow your audience if your content is providing the algorithm with good engagement statistics.

Second, almost any content on the internet has the potential to go viral. While virality is extremely hard to engineer, it is not out of the ordinary to receive out-of-proportion attention for specific pieces of content (this is valuable information when it comes to validating the interest of your target market). As a startup, you can push the boundaries of what you can do with your content more than established corporations, which gives you a competitive advantage in this regard.

Third, some forms of content have a very long lifespan. Generally speaking, content marketing doesn’t have a big short-term impact unless you pair it with PPC campaigns. The reason is that it takes a long time to build an audience (or to rank on Google through SEO). That said, in the long run, evergreen content can continue bringing attention to your project long after you’ve stopped actively investing in it.

In conclusion, content marketing could give you an extremely good bang for your buck if done intelligently. While it might not be the best fit for your project, it likely is one of the strongest candidates for the marketing strategy of choice for the average tech startup.

Abdo Riani

How To Lead With Trust

 I've just finished listening to Daniel Pink's "Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us" for the third time, having also riddled my paper copy with highlighting. Each time I read it, it feels like someone is striking a tuning fork in my head.

Pink talks about the difference between extrinsic motivation and intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation has three primary pieces: autonomy, mastery and purpose. Without giving a full review, I want to share how having the core value of "lead with trust" integrates with Daniel Pink's definition of autonomy.

Performance for heuristic tasks is typically better when those tasks are intrinsically motivated—that is, people are motivated by the value of the task itself rather than by some external, or extrinsic, motivation, like the classic stick and carrot. Autonomy is the part of intrinsic performance that involves acting with choice, which in a team environment means being both in control and highly interdependent.

Pink breaks it down into having control over four aspects of our work.

• Task: With the goals in mind, choosing what work to do.

• Time: Choosing when and where to do the work.

• Team: Choosing with whom to do the work.

• Technique: Choosing how to do the work.

This leads to a core value I recommend for any company: Lead with trust. By this I mean treating everyone, whether a team member or a client, as if you trust them as much as you would a longtime friend or family member who would never cause you harm. I have found that when I do this, most people not only appreciate it but also go to great efforts to act consistently.

My success with "leading with trust" has led me to develop an extremely short policy manual for my company—just 22 words—that has benefits that could be implemented at any company. This is not a list of "things not to do" and punishments for doing them, but rather a series of clear, positive goalposts to motivate you and your team. Let's go over these four policies and how they can be most effective.

1. Build respectful relationships.

Many companies require long-term relationships, and our behavior should reflect that. How we dress, our topics of conversation, whether we follow up and whether we honor expectations—even if not contractual—are all a part of this.

If long-term relationships are the goal, we should be respectful toward the other party. "Respectful" does not mean "not disrespectful." As an example, many policy manuals have a sexual harassment policy, which is meant to prevent bad behavior, or in this language, prevent disrespectful behavior. But what we want is for the other party to feel so cherished and cared for that they trust we would never enter their space, use words that might be suggestive or glance at the wrong body parts. The bad behavior is not a question because the emphasis is on cherishing and caring for the other individual.

What it means to be respectful is situational and can vary with each relationship. With some customers, you may be able to talk about religion or politics or other normally taboo subjects; but with others, it may be better to restrict conversation to weather, sports and business.

2. Take vacations. Enjoy yourself.

It can be draining to maintain a complex network of relationships and the high-paced learning required to keep up with the intense activity in an open innovation consortium. It is up to individual team members to know when they need a break, and for how long. But breaks are needed.

Some people work best with intense 60-hour weeks followed by hard-stop breaks to recover. Others flourish best with a steady pace of workdays and sporadic breaks. Some go back and forth. The basic idea is that nobody is most productive when working too much, so you need to be able to trust each other to manage time in a way that will maximize your everyday life and contributions.

3. Do not come to work sick.

This could also have been part of building respectful relationships. (Who can respectfully expose you to a disease?) I wanted to call it out separately, if only to emphasize that the only really important thing when you are sick is to get better. Stay home, rest and watch Netflix or Hulu so you can return to work refreshed and healthy.

4. Use company resources for the good of the company.

Every company trusts their employees to do this to some extent. The key is to simplify decision-making by eliminating some of the layers of approvals needed before taking action. This should be accompanied by a very high level of transparency that forces most big decisions to be made through dialogue.

Constantly ask each other "Should we do this?" or "What would be a better way?" Teammates who care deeply about their vision and relationships will drive dialogues to the right conclusion. The most important part is transparency, where lots of people weigh in on activities and their associated expenses. The result of this collaboration should be an efficient use of resources that benefits the most people within the company.

Trust is built on love.

The foundation of leading with trust is love—by which I mean the Greek word philia, which is used to mean brotherly or sisterly love. As a Christian, I philia my teammates, although I don't expect them to get their own philia from the same source, as each of us may be in a different place in our spiritual journey.

Regardless of where each team member is, it is important to philia each other enough to always show respect. Philia each other enough to cover each other when someone needs to refuel or just enjoy life. Philia each other enough to give time and space to get well. And philia each other and the world by stewarding resources responsibly. This attitude will lead to more trust and longer-lasting relationships between your team members and your clients in the long run.

Brian Morin

4 Tactics To Boost Your Team’s Collaboration In A Remote World

 A few years ago, running into colleagues on their way to the break room was a mundane workplace happenstance. Now, plenty of employees—and their supervisors—long for those kinds of casual meetings. Telecommuting from home is a lot more isolating than working in the office. And when people aren’t regularly interacting, collaboration decreases.

Truly, collaboration has become one of the biggest challenges of remote work. Research from Codegiant suggests that 86% of individuals attribute workplace failures to poor collaboration. Even when everyone tries to get together virtually, the results can be lackluster. Anyone who has been on a digital conference call knows that. How often do participants look at their emails or even zone out? It is hard to concentrate or feel the same level of commitment during online interactions.

So, how can you overcome the inherent collaboration difficulties associated with remote work and increase your team’s sense of togetherness? Try following these four strategies:

1. Make time and space for relationship building.

Too often, people become trapped into thinking that every moment they spend with remote teammates needs to be about work. They end up cutting out the “small talk” to improve efficiency. However, that is exactly the opposite of what you should be encouraging your team to do. In order to help employees overcome the loneliness and isolation that so many remote workers feel, you need to make space for them to connect as individuals.

Timm Urschinger, cofounder and CEO of LIVEsciences, firmly believes in the power of relationship building. “Talking about topics that we consider ‘non-business’ is actually important for decentralized workforces,” he says. “Team development and the times we spend making small talk are just as important now that we’re remote as they were before. Leaders need to understand this and make time for these activities.”

If it feels awkward to set up regular online coffee breaks, try incorporating five to 10 minutes of pleasantries into all meetings. You could also set up AMA (i.e., ask me anything) sessions or urge everyone to share their thoughts on prompts. Honoring, valuing, and highlighting people’s lives outside of work allows employees to form meaningful bonds. These bonds are critical to boosting engagement, loyalty, trust, and retention.

2. Ensure all materials are easy to find.

It is annoying for remote workers when they can’t find what they need to do their jobs. “In fact, about 48% of remote employees say they lose time looking for information,” writes Leah Westfall, senior content marketing manager at RingCentral. “Adopt a dedicated hub for knowledge and file sharing employees can turn to anytime they need help.”

The important word there is “hub.” In other words, try to streamline your technology as much as possible. For instance, maybe you don’t need five different systems that don’t integrate. Maybe one or two systems would be more feasible and allow everyone to work more efficiently and intelligently.

Without the right tech stack, your in-house workers might not feel a pinch—but your virtual employees will suffer. The more friction they feel, the higher the likelihood they’ll become less invested in your company. To avoid this pitfall, invest in technologies such as centralized collaborative work management platforms and project management software programs aimed at improving self-sufficiency.

3. Share your goals broadly and specifically.

Does everyone know the goals you are hoping to achieve in the coming weeks and months? If you haven’t already set SMART (or specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound) goals for every project or task, you probably should start. Once those SMART goals are in place, you can take them to your team.

When team members know precisely what is expected of them, they feel more invested in solutions and their roles. “They [leaders] can also involve team members in decision-making processes to develop trust, increase transparency, and align team behaviors,” writes the Indeed editorial team. Give your team the opportunity to contribute to and change aspects of your initial goals to increase their ownership and buy-in.

You might also want to set some high-level goals and ask your teams to come up with the steps to achieve them. This gives employees the chance to collaborate and brainstorm, as well as the opportunity to influence what happens to their departments and the organization.

4. Shine a light on successful collaboration.

When you want to see more of a certain type of behavior, you should always highlight it. “Employees are more productive, and more satisfied, when they feel connected, valued, and seen,” writes the team at global employment website Monster.com. “This level of transparency creates a culture of trust and can motivate employees to work closely across teams to ensure the overall success of the company.”

The easiest way to do this as a leader is to recognize jobs that have been done well because of a team’s collaboration efforts. Even if the outcome wasn’t spectacular, you might find it valuable to share unique ways that employees overcame difficulties related to the geographic distance between them. Your objective should be to help everyone discover new ways to collaborate. It is so much easier for workers to learn from each other’s experiences. Don’t be surprised if you learn a little something, too.

Remote work is the new normal, but people’s need for human interaction hasn’t disappeared. Your mission is to employ tactics to boost the effectiveness of collaboration regardless of where your team members live or work. That way, your workers can bypass one of the major hiccups of telecommuting and reap only the benefits.

Rhett Power

How The Fed Measures Inflation, And What That Means For You

 Recent inflation has grabbed everyone’s attention. This includes the stock and bond markets and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). However, with several different measures of inflation released at different times, and lots of three-letter acronyms - how can you interpret the latest government figures on inflation?

Here we’ll review the main U.S. inflation metrics, and their similarities and differences, as well as more recent trends in the rise of nowcasting of inflation data.

What Is Inflation?

First off, it’s helpful to review what inflation is measuring. It is the change in prices over a given period, typically a month or year.

It can help to think about this using the analogy of your weight. Inflation isn’t like measuring your weight directly, but how much your weight is changing. So inflation is telling you, not that you weigh 170lbs, but that you have put on 5lbs over the past year.

This means inflation data tells us if prices are rising or falling and how fast. You can probably see that inflation is also a series that has a strong trend component to it. For example, coming back to the weight example, if you gain five pounds in January then unless something changes then you’ll unfortunately still have those five pounds for the rest of the calendar year.

That’s one reason inflation is high currently, prices have risen a lot over the past 12 months, and even if new data enters the series with steadier prices, prices are expected to stay high for a while as prior month’s effects are still included in the inflation series.

Inflation is typically described on a year-on-year basis, so saying that inflation is at 8% for September 2022, means that prices are 8% higher, on average, in September 2022 than in September 2021.

Consumer vs. Producer Costs

Then one of the fundamental differences in inflation data is whom prices are being measured for. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data measure costs for consumer goods and services. In contrast, Producer Price Index (PPI) measure costs for producers, such as businesses. The PPI was once called the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) which may be a simpler description of what it’s measuring - whole prices rather than consumer prices.

What Makes PPI Unique

This makes the PPI data somewhat unique. It tells us how prices are changing for primarily for businesses, not for consumers. Many economists think that because producers are earlier in the supply chain, PPI inflation can be a leading indicator of inflation.

For example, if prices are rising or falling for steel, then it may appear in the PPI inflation first, and then that cost is passed onto consumers in subsequent weeks or months as they purchase final products and services that incorporate steel. However, though there is an impact here, research suggests that the relationship is weaker than you might expect.

One reason for this is that businesses add on a margin to make a profit, and those margins change over time and impact the prices consumers pay. Though margin changes don’t appear in the PPI data and can make a big difference to consumers.

PPI is useful measure of what’s going on in the U.S. economy and gives useful insights. Yet, it’s a little removed from the prices that consumers are actually paying today.

CPI vs. PCE Inflation

Then we have the two most common measures of the prices that consumers are paying. From a financial market standpoint, CPI inflation is released earlier in the month for the prior month, so often gets a little more attention.

PCE inflation is released a few weeks later, so is often less of a surprise as PPI. CPI data have already been released for the same month once we see the PCE numbers.

From a high level perspective, the two measures are quite similar. You can see a recent comparison of the series here and the differences have historically been fairly small. Nonetheless, PCE inflation tends to come in a little lower than CPI inflation. The differences are worth noting.

Scope Differences

CPI inflation measures the cost consumers pay directly. PCE inflation also includes services for consumers that are paid for by others on behalf of consumers, such as by employers or non-profits.

The most common example used to explain this is healthcare costs. CPI just measures consumers out-of-pocket costs for healthcare, whereas PCE measures healthcare services for consumers that are paid for by others, such as employers.

Weighting Differences

Perhaps the biggest challenge when determining inflation is how you weight different prices to arrive at average inflation. CPI and PCE do this using different techniques. CPI uses consumer expenditure surveys to determine what households are purchasing. PCE uses NIPA data on what businesses have sold to consumers.

Urban vs. Not

CPI measures prices for urban consumers, whereas PCE includes all prices, both urban and rural.

Index Construction Differences

CPI uses a Laspeyres formula and PCE uses a Fisher formula to construct their inflation metrics. Generally the PCE’s formula is considered superior. It is quicker to pick-up on changes in what people are buying.

However, remember CPI comes out earlier so still gets a lot of attention. Also again, looking at historical data these differences are very interesting to statisticians, but don’t tend to change the reported data all that much.

However, the CPI’s method is quicker and simpler as the spending on different items is held constant over a period of time, typically 1-2 years. That can mean that CPI data can overstate inflation due to being slower to recognize consumer substitutions.

For example, if the price of bananas went to $20 each, it’s quite likely that most consumers would buy a lot fewer bananas and switch to buying more apples or other fruits. PCE data would, theoretically, pick up on this during the month it occurred as business sales for bananas would fall. However, the CPI index would only pick up a change with its next weighting update which could be 1 or 2 years away. This is one reason CPI inflation can come in slightly higher than CPE inflation on average.

Granularity

If you want to get into the details of price trends. CPI can actually offer more color. The CPI breaks out price changes for different products and services in quite a lot of detail. This means that if you want to know the monthly price change for peanut butter, it’s there, buried in the pages of the CPI report.

In contrast the PCE inflation data is more high level. This matter if you want to unpack the trends in inflation in different parts of the economy to better understand price changes or focus on very specific price trends for certain items.

Which Is Better PCE or CPI?

The Fed has a preference for PCE data as a broader and more robust measure of inflation. PCE updates weightings more frequently, includes urban and rural prices and covers items bought on behalf of consumers as well as goods and services consumers buy directly.

However, the two metrics are historically fairly similar, though CPI will often tend to trend a little higher, and even though the PCE numbers may be more robust, CPI comes out weeks earlier which counts for a lot when it come to financial markets. The CPI also contains more granular information on price changes, which can be helpful if you want to drill in.

Nowcasting

Lastly, we have the recent trend for nowcasting. While inflation data is generally released pretty soon after the prior month ends, nowcasting can be even quicker.

Rather than wait for the CPI to tell you what gas prices were a few weeks after the fact, you can, of course, look online right now and find out. Since so much pricing information is now online whether at Amazon or elsewhere, innovative services can just scrape that information and show where prices are moving in real time.

This approach may lack some of the statistical sophistication of PCE models, and can be opaque, but it more than makes up for it by providing an immediate take on what’s happening that is fairly accurate.

The Cleveland Federal Reserve offers a nowcasting service for inflation which is updated daily and can be found here. These nowcasts can be pretty good, and provide a reasonable signal on where prices may be heading.

Which Is The Best Inflation Measure?

All inflation metrics have something to offer. Nowcasts can provide an early signal on inflation trends almost in real time. PCE inflation is probably the most robust inflation metric overall. Still, CPI data is released earlier and is seldom too different, so CPI is helpful in forming a view on where inflation is trending sooner.

Then PPI is measuring prices for businesses, which is quite a different topic, but certainly related. This can provide useful insights on price trends in the economy.

Across the different inflation metrics, all have their uses. The one thing we can say is that the Fed would like them all to be lower than they are currently.

Simon Moore

Apple iOS 16.1: iPhone Users Urged To Update For Dazzling New Features

 Apple iOS 16.1 is here and has been much-anticipated. Here’s how to install it, who it’s for and what’s in the update.

Which iPhones can run iOS 16.1?

The new software will run on all iPhones from iPhone 8 onwards. To be exact, that’s iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, iPhone X, iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max, iPhone Xr, iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, iPhone 11 Pro Max, iPhone SE second generation, iPhone 12, iPhone 12 mini, iPhone 12 Pro, iPhone 12 Pro Max, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13 Pro, iPhone 13 Pro Max, iPhone SE, iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. And breathe.For iPads, you need iPadOS which, for the first time, is on a different release schedule than iOS. The first version is iPadOS 16.1, also just-released.

What’s in the release

There’s a lot to unpack here. First of all, the new iPhone software is timed not alongside just the new iPad release, iPadOS 16.1, but also the latest software for the Mac, macOS Ventura. There are bug fixes, of course, but also lots of new stuff.

First, there’s iCloud Shared Photo Library which means that you can share photos with friends and family members easily. You and up to five other people can add, editor or remove photos in a shared library.

Live Activities is a very cool feature and it now expands to third-party apps. It means that as you’re waiting for a food delivery order, a ride share or your next flight, the iPhone display will update in real-time on the iPhone lock screen—or in the Dynamic Island if you have an iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apps like Flighty, a brilliant flight tracking experience, can take advantage of this with iOS 16.1.

Then there’s Clean Energy Charging (for the U.S. only) which is designed to help you ensure that your iPhone recharges when the grid is using cleaner energy sources.

If you’ve always wanted to use Apple Fitness+, you can now subscribe to Apple Fitness+ without Apple Watch. Of course, you can’t see your real-time heart rate and calories metrics live on screen, as you can with the Watch, but you get access to nearly all the workout and meditation videos which you can watch on your iPhone, iPad or Apple TV.

Dynamic Island now gets integration with Reachability, the feature that lets you use the iPhone more easily with one hand by bringing the top half of the display down to the bottom. Wallet now allows key sharing, so those virtual keys that work for cars, hotel rooms and more can be shared with others. Matter is a smart home connectivity standard designed to make smart home accessories work together more easily and it’s supported in iOS 16.1.

There was another feature planned for Wallet: Apple Card Savings Account, a new savings account for Apple Card users. Although it was mentioned in the beta versions of iOS 16.1, it’s missing from the final version just released.

Bug fixes include an issue where deleted conversations were still appearing in the conversations list in Messages. There’s also a fix for CarPlay not connecting when using a VPN app and for Dynamic Island content not being available when Reachability is invoked.

iCloud Shared Photo Library

· Separate library for seamlessly sharing photos and videos with up to five other people

· Setup rules allow you to easily contribute past photos based on a start date or people in the photos when you set up or join a library

· Library filters for quickly switching between viewing the Shared Library, your Personal Library or both libraries together

· Shared edits and permissions let everyone add, edit, favourite, caption and delete photos

· Sharing toggle in Camera lets you choose to send photos you take straight to the Shared Library, or enable a setting to share automatically when other participants are detected nearby using Bluetooth

Live Activities

· Live Activities from third-party apps are available in the Dynamic Island and on the Lock Screen for iPhone 14 Pro models

Fitness+

· Apple Fitness+ is supported on iPhone even if you don’t have an Apple Watch

Wallet

· Key sharing enables you to securely share car, hotel room and other keys in Wallet using messaging apps such as Messages and WhatsApp

Home

· Matter, the new smart home connectivity standard, is supported, enabling a wide variety of smart home accessories to work together across ecosystems

Books

· Reader controls are automatically hidden as you start reading

This update also includes bug fixes for your iPhone:

· Deleted conversations may appear in the conversations list in Messages

· Dynamic Island content is not available when using Reachability

· CarPlay may fail to connect when using a VPN app

Some features may not be available in all regions or on all Apple devices.

David Phelan